Featured Stories
The MIT Lottery Team
Americans spent $58 billion dollars on lottery tickets in 2011 in hopes of defying the odds and striking… [more]
The Truth About Continuous Shuffle Machines & Card Counting
I get asked fairly often about continuous shuffle machines (CSM's) and their effect on the game of blackjack.… [more]
Def Con & Card Counting: Hacking Las Vegas
Last week I attended Def Con, the world's largest computer hacker convention which is held annually in… [more]
Trend Following and Card Counting
Last week I met with Michael Covel, author and president of Trend Following, a privately owned firm… [more]
The Father of Card Counting – Ed Thorp
Every January I attend the Blackjack Ball - an invitation only event in Las Vegas for the professional… [more]
The MIT Lottery Team
Americans spent $58 billion dollars on lottery tickets in 2011 in hopes of defying the odds and striking it rich. The tremendous popularity of the lottery despite it’s horrific return on investment has led some to cynically label the lottery as a stupidity tax. However, a group of MIT students figured out how to turn [...]
The Truth About Continuous Shuffle Machines & Card Counting
I get asked fairly often about continuous shuffle machines (CSM’s) and their effect on the game of blackjack. With CSM’s, no discard tray is needed because the dealer continuously places the played cards into the shuffle machine (for example, after a player busts a hand). This provides a constant randomization of the cards which negates [...]
Def Con & Card Counting: Hacking Las Vegas
Last week I attended Def Con, the world’s largest computer hacker convention which is held annually in Las Vegas. It was the first time I have attended the convention and it was quite a scene. Well over 10,000 people attended Def Con 20, including computer security specialists, hardware hackers, law enforcement, cyber criminals and those [...]
Trend Following and Card Counting
Last week I met with Michael Covel, author and president of Trend Following, a privately owned firm specializing in trend trading research. Michael recorded our lunch meeting as he interviewed me about my experiences with the MIT Blackjack Team. We were both struck by the similarities and connections between trend trading and card counting. Expected return, risk [...]
The Father of Card Counting – Ed Thorp
Every January I attend the Blackjack Ball – an invitation only event in Las Vegas for the professional blackjack community. Many of the best advantage players in the world travel from as far as Asia and Europe for an evening of light revelry. There was a very special guest at this year’s Blackjack Ball. Blackjack luminary, [...]
Reversion to the Mean: Card Counting & Playing The Market
The mean or the average of the count in blackjack is zero as there are an equal number of low cards and high cards in any shoe or complete number of decks. The further away the count is from zero, the stronger the tendency that it will move back toward the mean. Professional card counters [...]
The Big Score
In the minds of gamblers, the dream of striking it rich far outweighs the reality of the less than favorable odds. Nowhere is this more apparent than with the lottery. The odds of winning the lottery are astronomically low but when you factor in the millions of tickets that are sold, sooner or later someone [...]
Playing With House Money
On a riverboat casino I once witnessed a 21 year old kid parlay a $25 buy-in into $1000 in less than an hour. As his chip pile grew so did his grin, and he insisted on high fiving me repeatedly. I was happy for him but I was hoping he would take his money and [...]
The Monty Hall Problem and Card Counting
In the movie 21, Professor Mickey Rosa poses an interesting puzzle to his class – The Monty Hall Problem. Imagine you’re on a game show and the host presents to you three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats. Behind one of the doors is a car. Choose the correct door and you win [...]
Betting Progressions: Fool’s Gold of Gamblers
Many gamblers are intrigued by betting systems based on the amount wagered and the outcome of the previous hand. These systems, which are touted in some books and all over the internet, are betting progressions – the most popular of which is the Martingale. With the Martingale system you start off with your base bet, [...]
How Important is the Burn Card in Blackjack?
At most casinos the dealer must “burn” the first card of a shoe by placing it directly in the discard tray before any cards are dealt. In Atlantic City the burn card is usually shown before it’s taken out of play, but what about when the burn card isn’t revealed? This seems to cause angst [...]
Stop Gambling and Start Investing
Professional gambler has always been a moniker that makes me twinge. As a card counter, I have never considered myself a gambler. Investor is a much more fitting title for a professional card counter. Some may say that this is an insignificant matter of semantics. After all, both gamblers & investors put their money on [...]
Hit Soft 17 – Friend or Foe?
Most blackjack players are oblivious to whether the dealer stands or hits on soft 17. The dealer stand on soft 17 rule has always been the standard, but a growing number of casinos now require the dealer to hit on soft 17 (hands like Ace, 6). Not only do most players fail to recognize the [...]
Even Money: Is Insurance a Sure Thing?
As the dealer lays down your second card, a smile grows across your face. You just got blackjack. A moment later your smile fades. The dealer has an ace showing. She calls out for insurance bets. Before the dealer checks the hole card, she makes eye contact with you, awaiting your decision. The player next [...]
Blackjack: What are the Odds?
Blackjack is the name of the game. So what are the odds of getting dealt a blackjack? The probability depends on how many decks are played. Of course the essential ingredients to blackjack are an ace and a ten-value card (10, jack, queen, or king). In a single deck game there are 4 aces and [...]
NCAA Sweet 16 – Thursday & Friday’s Tournament Picks
Brian is going with the underdogs for his Thursday and Friday NCAA Tournament picks. All Vegas lines are based on line at Caesars Palace on 3/25 as noted on Vegas.com. 1. Connecticut -7.5 vs Purdue. I’ll take the points and go with Purdue here. I do think UConn wins this but it will be a [...]
Statistical Modeling: Finding a Winning System
Brian’s picks went 0-2 on Sunday, making his record so far in the NCAA tournament a combined 2-7. So what does Brian’s 2-7 win-loss record tell us about his handicapping system? Very little. It’s not possible to determine the long term advantage of Brian’s system based on a tiny sample of 9 picks. Evaluating a [...]
Handicapping March Madness – Sunday’s Picks
Brian’s picks went 1-2 on Saturday. The following are Brian’s picks for Sunday. 1. Syracuse -1.5 vs Arizona State. I show this game as essentially a pick ‘em with a very slight edge to Arizona State. The computer models continue to be unimpressed with Syracuse despite their easy first round win. Arizona State showed nicely [...]
Handicapping March Madness – Saturday’s Picks
Brian’s picks went 1-3 in the first round. Here are his picks and comments for the first day of round 2. Brian’s picks are based on the lines at Caesars earlier today which are subject to movement. 1. Gonzaga -10.5 vs Western Kentucky. I show Gonzaga covering this easily. The ‘Zags came on late against Akron [...]
Handicapping March Madness – The NCAA Basketball Tournament
photo by Kevin Tsui In anticipation of March Madness, casual and hard core fans across the country have been turning in their tournament predictions for their office pools. I have a friend, Brian, whose interest in the tournament runs much deeper than filling out a bracket. He has been handicapping and betting on tournament games since 2002. Brian is an [...]
The Truth About Rainman
The movie, Rainman, provided me with my first glimpse of card counting. In Rainman, Tom Cruise plays a slick, fast talking hustler, Charlie Babbit, and Dustin Hoffman, who steals the show, plays Charlie’s autistic savant brother, Raymond Babbit. In a sub-plot of the movie, when Charlie realizes Raymond has a photographic memory and an incredible penchant for [...]
6/5 Blackjack: Beware the Imposter
In recent years single-deck blackjack has made a comeback, or so it may seem. Unfortunately, the single-deck game hasn’t been resurrected at all. Most single-deck offerings are mere imposters that pay only 6/5 on blackjack instead of 3/2. You aren’t quite as lucky on a 6/5 blackjack because you’re getting 20% less than what you rightfully deserve. This reduced payout on blackjack [...]
World Game Protection Conference: Day 3
The inaugural Golden Dome Awards was one of the featured events of the last day of the WGPC. Video of some of the best scams caught by surveillance in casinos across the country were shown in three major categories: 1) Table Game Takedowns 2) Slot Takedowns 3) Theft Takedowns The video clips were judged on [...]
World Game Protection Conference: Day 2
Day 2 of the WGPC began with keynote sessions on unconventional means of beating the casinos. Kicking off the day with High-Tech Casino Crime was Richard Martin and John Anderson from London’s Metropolitan Police Clubs & Vice. When I think of gaming in the UK, the first thing that comes to mind is the trio of eastern [...]
World Game Protection Conference: Day 1
A few days ago I returned from the World Game Protection Conference (WGPC). It was a memorable 3 days. Shortly after arriving in Vegas, I received some disappointing news from Willy Allison, President of World Game Protection. Allison had been informed that Dave Irvine and I would not be allowed on any of the tours of the [...]
Update on iPhone Card Counting App – Overhyped
A lot of people have called or emailed me since the iPhone card counting app made news a few weeks ago. Since that time I have purchased an iPhone, and true to my word, I have not downloaded the card counting program. I have learned more about the app from watching several videos and viewing screenshots of the program, [...]
Sleeping with the Enemy? The World Game Protection Conference
Starting this Sunday, Caesars Palace in Las Vegas is hosting the World Game Protection Conference (WGPC), a 3 day conference and exhibition dedicated to casino game protection. CEOs, surveillance managers, operations managers, and security heads from casinos all over the world are among those who will be in attendance. I’m planning on going as well, and no, I [...]
Basic Strategy: Improve Your Odds by 75%
At blackjack tables around the world, it’s an all too common scene. Players contemplating, arguing, agonizing, and eventually guessing how to play their hands. Player 12 vs Dealer 3 is just one situation that has many players wanting to pull their hair out. The good news is all of this frustration and soul searching is [...]
Use Your Mind, Not a Device: iPhone’s Card Counting App
There’s an application for the iPhone that can count cards. When users enter card information into the iPhone by tapping its virtual buttons, the program keeps track of the running count and calculates the true count which measures how favorable the remaining cards are for the player. Sound like an easy way to make a [...]
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